Well folks, it isn’t.  In fact these bipolar Hawks are in the four spot right now in the East, with a solid three game lead.  Their only true threat is Philadelphia, who has experienced a classic case of “addition by subtraction” as seen from their improved record after the injury to Elton Brand.  Brand slowed what was (and now is) an athletic team down.  The Sixers are scary, although I do believe that the Hawks are a better, more well rounded team.  As for the division rival Heat, Jermaine O’Neal may be a “sexy” name but he’s injury prone and isn’t nearly the same type of player he used to be.  I think this deal doesn’t really help or hurt the Heat and I would be surprised if they eventually take over the 4 spot.  

With the trade deadline looming, its unclear if these Hawks are going to make a move to bolster their position.  A move to increase their depth on the bench would make sense.  The Hawks are undersized and when Horford and/or Pachulia get into foul trouble (see any game vs. Dwight Howard), the lack of size becomes crystal clear.  I haven’t heard a ton of big men rumored, but we all know Chris Wilcox, Brad Miller, and David Lee are names that are out there.  Personally, I could do without Miller, who at this point in his career is a big man masquerading as a shooting guard.   But Wilcox and Lee, although undersized power forwards, are tenacious rebounders who could provide some great energy off the bench.  

What has impressed me most over the last three weeks has been how these Hawks have weathered the injury bug.  Horford, Williams, Bibby and Johnson have all managed to miss time yet they have still been able to persevere.  The Hawks found a way to win two huge games without their All-Star and leading scorer.  It almost seemed at times as though they missed their floor general – Mike Bibby  - more than JJ (although I think we can put this theory to rest).  The Hawks in recent years past have simply folded upon a little resistance.  While the Hawks of 2008 have gotten blasted on occasion (see that horrific performance to an atrocious Clippers team), they have managed to stay upright and come back from poor performances to win games.  In an 82 game season, the ability to come back from defeat is essential to surviving.  

FERNANDEZ GETS SCREWED: I wasn’t really sure about Rudy Fernandez’s entrance into the Slam Dunk Contest, but upon seeing what he pulled off, I thought he deserved a little better.  Fernandez’s first dunk was mediocre at best; however, his second dunk may have been one of the top three of the night.  For those who missed it, Fernandez had Pau Gasol throw the ball off the back of the backboard.  Fernandez then came in from behind one side of the rim, launched himself to catch the ball and dunked the ball as his body was moving to the other side of the rim.  It scored a 43, but it deserved a 48 or better.

Josh Childress could prove a valuable trade chip.

Sekou Smith recently interviewed Josh Childress about his time in Greece.  Childress is back in Atlanta to undergo sports hernia surgery.  While the lanky former 6th man may have been gone, he certainly was not forgotten in Atlanta.  Hawks fans made sure management knew of their displeasure after the team failed to sign Childress in the offseason, being outbid by the Greek franchise Olympiakos.  The Hawks called Childress’ bluff and they called wrong – he was serious in his intent to sign in Europe, and perhaps Sund and company underestimated the thirst for culture of a young Stanford grad.  

6 months later, however, the landscape has changed a little, and we are left with the following questions: Will Childress return to the NBA?  If so, will it be with the Hawks?  and if not, what can the Hawks get for him?  I personally have no doubt that Childress will return to the NBA.  While he may be enjoying his time in Greece, it’s not home and it’s not the NBA.  The Europeans may be equally passionate about basketball, but the NBA is still the premier league in the world and every athlete who can play in it tends to do so.  (There are exceptions obviously – Spanish shooting guard Juan Carlos Navarro could have stayed with the Grizzlies, but instead he opted to go back to his home country to play; but then again, he was in Memphis where the Spanish population is not the highest.)  Look no further than Serbian power forward Nenad Krstic, who was a solid role player on the Nets before bolting to play for the Russian league team Triumph.  But after only less than a half a season, Krstic returned to the NBA, inking a three deal with the Oklahoma City Thunder.  

Perhaps I’m reading between the lines, but not only has Childress opened the door to a return to the NBA, but there’s still a slight crack open for a return to the Hawks.  Childress loves Atlanta and for good reason.  It’s a larger city with a high African-American population.  It’s the epicenter of hip-hop culture and fans are starting to care again about its professional basketball team.  Throw on the fact that Childress’ mother lived ten minutes away from him and cooked all his meals and you have to think Atlanta is at least a possibility.  And boy, could Atlanta use him.  While the Hawks have survived with a less than average bench through 42 games this season, it will catch up to them at some point.  Childress brings a slashing and offensive rebounding skill set which the Hawks lack off the bench, and if they could somehow find a way to bring him back, the pine would be much approved. 

In the event my optimistic predictions prove less than prophetic, then the Hawks are looking at potentially trading the rights to Childress to another team.  There will be a number of takers.  The Spurs (and others), for one, were interested in signing Childress in the offseason but could not offer him more than the mid-level exception.  The Hawks figured NBA teams were the only ones they were bidding against, and thus they told Childress to go seek a better offer.  Unfortunately, they never thought “outside the box” like Childress to realistically consider a European team swooping in for his services.  The Hawks could likely steal a first round draft pick for the swingman, or possibly pull the trigger on a player for player deal.  Regardless, unless the Hawks decide in the coming months to relinquish Childress’ rights – a move I would beg the Hawks to not even consider – we could be looking at some interesting trade scenarios down the road.

Mike Bibby had his defining game as a Hawk Tuesday vs. Chicago

ATL 105 CHI 102: If you wondered why the Hawks traded for Mike Bibby right before last year’s trade deadline, now you know.  If you wondered if the Hawks need to resign the veteran point guard after this season, you better know.  Mike Bibby was up to his old tricks Tuesday night in Chicago, single handedly willing the Hawks to a victory over a young but competitive Bulls squad.  Bibby poured in 31, a sizeable amount of which came from the outside deep down the stretch.  Bibby nailed four of the Hawks last five baskets, all clutch jumpers which he created nearly by himself.  Perhaps Bibby has slowed since his Sacramento days, but he still has that magic and veteran savvy this Hawks team not only craves but needs. 

Anyone could see it in his eyes down the stretch: Bibby knew he was having an “on” night and he was conducting his teammates to simply move out of the way.  Bibby put the final dagger in the Bulls with 18 seconds remaining, driving hard on Joakim Noah only to step back and drop a deuce right in front of the UF alum.  Not only was the point guard  rainbowing jumpers from outside, but he was also exceptional on the defensive side of the basketball.  Bibby had five steals, three of which came from “laying in the weeds” as Bulls announcer Stacey King so aptly put it.  Bibby baited two outlet passes and one pass across halfcourt, only to “jump” and intercept them.  His halfcourt steal was the largest, as it occurred in the waning moments of the fourth when the Bulls could have cut the lead further or tied. 

With the injuries to Horford and Williams, the Hawks needed a big night from their backcourt and they got it.  It was clear from the start that both Bibby and Johnson wanted to assert themselves on the offensive end.  Johnson proved relatively ineffective, finishing the night 5 for 18 and missing some wide open jumpers he typically can be relied upon to make.  (Johnson, however, did well hounding Derrick Rose on the defensive end, who had a relatively quiet night when it was all said and done.)  Bibby, on the other hand, got hot early and never stopped.  He dropped 17 in the first half and kept the Hawks in the game as the Bulls started to pull away with a small lead in the middle of the second.  Until the injuries to the Hawks’ key players heal, the team has no choice but to rely on heavy minutes from their backcourt and Josh Smith.  Bibby will need more games like Tuesday for the Hawks to weather the current storm, but if his performance against the Bulls was any indication, perhaps the Hawks are equipped to ride out the current injury bug smoother than in year’s past. 

PACHULIA CHIPS IN: Although the Georgian back-up had a brutal stretch in the middle of the fourth in which he blew an easy dunk, almost was charged with an offensive foul and then travelled (this all in two possessions), Pachulia for the most part played an outstanding game.  The center dropped in an efficient 18 and 4 in 39 minutes and was the Hawks second leading scorer on the night.  Aside from a rocky start to the season, Pachulia has been a relative model of consistency.  Perhaps this wouldn’t seem surprising to the average fan, but Hawks fans definitely have to be pleased.  While Horford’s return is imminent, Pachulia will continue to play a big role down the stretch and he must remain consistent.

GARDNER NOT CONVINCING:  For the second game in the row back up guard Thomas Gardner earned playing time and for the second game in the row he put up an airball.  This time it was from a three at the top of the key, which badly missed.  Although replays showed that the ball was not tipped, it badly missed the rim by a solid two feet.  Gardner partially redeemed himself by hitting one three in the game, but his comfort level is clearly not there.  In his defense, however, there has been an extreme pressure to perform and Gardner has to know his window of opportunity is just a sliver wide.  

PLAYING FOR THE BULLS?: Oh boy.  I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Chicago Bulls television announcers Neil Funk and Stacey King won’t be petitioning for the team to bring in Flip Murray at the end of this season.  The tagteam announcing duo kept asking “which team Murray was playing for” after Murray went on his typical mind-numbing rampage of poor shots, horrendous fouls, and turnovers.  Murray finished the night 4 for 13 with a +/- of -13, including a crucial missed shot with 3:15 remaining in the fourth that he had no business taking.  Ouch.  Murray’s worst play of the day?  His inbounds pass with 3.5 seconds on the clock, where he tried to loft the ball over Ben Gordon to Maurice Evans with the Hawks up 105-101 and the game seemingly in hand.  Woody looked as if he was about to blow a gasket on the sideline after the errant pass and stormed off the court after the game.

Folks, that’s what happens when you play 40 plus minutes on a regular basis.  You wear down.  Unfortunately, its happening alarmingly early for Joe Johnson, who clearly hit the wall last season right after the All-Star break.  The acquisition of Mike Bibby helped take some of the load off Johnson late last season, but its clear an aggregation of the past three seasons has taken a tolling effect this season.  

While I admittedly harp on the ineffective coaching of Mike Woodson, I think it bears mentioning again here.  Woodson has said recently that he needs to get his rotation “set” and utilize more bench players in order to stretch the rotation to nine or ten deep.  At this point, it may be too late.  Woodson has benched Acie Law for the majority of the season, and despite relative effectiveness from Solomon Jones, the lanky power forward has rarely seen the court after the return of Josh Smith.  Woodson needs to realize that these back-ups do bring something to the table, and if anything, will serve to boost the effectiveness of Joe Johnson late in games even if their +/-’s are lower.  Barring a trade, now is the time to stretch the rotation and go ten deep.  The Hawks are right in the thick of the season, 37 games in.  The starters need to be fresh for the stretch run and they simply won’t be if Woodson continues to run them into the ground. 

GROW THE CHEST HAIR: Say what you want about Zaza – he’s a bull in a China shop, he’s a bickering head case, he needs to stop shooting the foul line jumper – but he has straight up performed the last few games.  In one specific instance in Tuesday’s game, Pachulia literally moved Leandro Barbosa three feet away with one hand to grab the rebound and dished off for the assist.  Pachulia was everywhere, crashing the boards on both offense and defense.  Moreover, the Georgian proved useful on offense sets, finding his niche for easy lay-ins.  10 points and 11 rebounds in 32 minutes is typically what we see from Horford.  To get those numbers from a back-up is huge for the Hawks on the road. 

CHOKE JOB: While Marvin Williams has been very solid this season, his two missed free throws late in the game proved the difference in the loss to the Suns (much as Bibby’s blown layup was last Wednesday vs. Orlando).  Williams has definitely had his clutch moments this season – the three pointers to win it vs. Washington and take the lead vs. Boston on the road come to mind.  However, Williams’ two misses proved that this is still a young Hawks team not sure how to react in crunch time situations.  Although I get the sense this team is more ready to face playoff caliber teams on the road, they aren’t all the way there yet.  

POOR SHOT SELECTION: Josh Smith had an awful first quarter only to rebound through the second, third and most of the fourth.  But Smith’s shot selection in the game’s waning moments was downright awful.  As I have stated time in and time out, Smith has been maddeningly inconsistent and Tuesday proved no different.  After missing from outside early in the first, Smith clearly made it his mission to get to the hoop.  But not when it mattered.  With 52 seconds remaining and the Hawks down three, Smith found himself 16 feet out with his defender purposefully backing away.  Smith took the bait, launched the jumper, and the rest, as they say, is history.  Clank.

Williams' shoulder isn't all that is ailing in the ATL.

Go ahead and finish that ever-popular phrase.  Stick it in your head, turn the key.  Set it and forget it.  It’s pouring in Hawksville and the weather forecast is uncertain.  The Hawks are in unchartered territory: sporting a 22-14 record but seeing their level of play dissipate fast.  Three losses in a row shouldn’t seem too alarming.  After all, you play 82 games in the regular season in the NBA and odds dictate losing streaks.  Just ask the Celtics, losers of 5 of their last 7 before beating up on Toronto Sunday.  

But it’s not just the losing.  It’s how the Hawks have gone about the losing, getting pounded by Orlando in back to back games and not even putting up a fight against an Elton Brand-less Sixer team.  What about the defense that had these Hawks soaring to a 6-0 record early in the season?  Non-existent.  Ball movement and rhythm on offense?  Gone.  Just after I had written about this young team’s recent knack for finding the flow and consistency necessary to be successful in the NBA, it vanished in a heartbeat.  Sekou Smith described the Orlando loss on Friday as the “worst beating he had ever seen,” to paraphrase.  Since I lack the censorship he does, I will gladly rephrase.  That was an ass-kicking.  I have seen matadors in Spain take less of a demolition.  To be down 50 to your supposed “division rival” is to say goodnight to any potential challenge for a #3 seed and a division title.  

I have a theory.  Losing in the NBA is easy.  The Hawks have proven that for past decade.  With losing comes little to no expectation.  Win one here and there, and you’ve done your job.  Make the playoffs when you’re not expected to, and you may draw applause.  Perhaps a city awakens, as Atlanta did during the playoffs last season.  But when a team starts creating the expectation of winning – as the Hawks have done so this year – the entire outlook changes.  The pressure shifts like tectonic plates preparing for an earthquake.  Balance yourself accordingly, and perhaps you learn to survive with the added weight of expectation.  Step forward unprepared and who knows, you may fall just as quickly as it took you to rise.  

My point is this.  The Hawks are calibrating themselves like a fish swimming in new water.  They now have the expectation to win, and it has forced many of the younger players into a position they are unused to.  The Hawks were simply not ready to challenge Orlando, a more “veteran” team.  They felt the pressure and fell to the ground like a runaway prisoner shot in the leg.  But they will get up, and they will continue to challenge for the 4 seed in the East.  Make no mistake, this is a talented team.  A team which when it puts its mind to it and focuses, can play with just about anyone in the league.  

The Orlando back-to-back also exposed one another clear weakness which GM Rick Sund needs to address: depth.  The Nuggets recently bolstered their frontcourt with the addition of center Johan Petro.  Perhaps the Hawks can also inquire with the Thunder about Chris Wilcox or Joe Smith.  Chris Kaman (and to a lesser extent his teammate, Marcus Camby) is also a possibility, although I suspect given the ownership situation the Hawks will avoid such a long term commitment.  The Hawks, too, have assets to trade.  They may be willing to part with Acie Law, who has found his way into Mike Woodson’s doghouse through no apparent fault of his own.  And let’s not forget Speedy Claxton, arguably the worst free agent signing in Hawks history who has given them little other than one horrific season and a neverending stream of injury updates.  There’s also the rights to Josh Childress, which may have more value than you think since it is almost a foregone conclusion the lanky swingman will return to domestic play. 

Brace yourself Hawks fans.  The next few games may be rough.  But trust me on this: they will be better for it.  And while they are not ready to challenge the Celtics, Cavs and Magic for superiority in the East, they are still capable of doing damage, at which point, we just may see the sun peak out.

J Smoove and the Hawks are starting to fly to new heights. (AP Photo/Gregory Smith)

HOU 100 ATL 103: Consistency.  It can be evasive.  Or when you’re the Spurs it can be as reliable as a six year old’s favorite blanket – always there, ready to wrap itself around you to commandeer you through some of life’s most inglorious moments.  For the Hawks, consistency is a word too unfamiliar for a professional basketball team, at least when the term is used positively.  Not anymore.  After a decade of impotence on the basketball court, Hawks basketball is back and with a vengeance. 

Don’t look now but the Hawks sit at 22-11, 3.5 games behind the Southeast Division leading Orlando Magic.  With a home and home upcoming this Wednesday and Friday against those division leaders, the Hawks could slice that lead down to a game and a half.  For those who don’t remember, the Hawks torched the Magic in the season opener in Orlando.  The Magic won’t be so kind as to dish out a repeat performance this week.  Not at all.  Orlando currently sits within the NBA’s “elite four,” joined by L.A., Cleveland and Boston. Expect two battles which should go a long way towards setting the tone for the race to the top of the division this year. 

But let’s take a step back.  How did these young Hawks get to this point?  In one word: consistency.  Something clicked on the Hawks most recent eight game home stretch.  They shared the ball and established the requisite “flow” on offense.  Joe Johnson decided he needed to put even more trust in his teammates, and that he has done, culminating in a ridiculous 14 assists in Saturday’s win vs. Houston.  (In the last 12 games, Johnson has averaged 7.1 assists/game.)  Josh Smith realized 99% of the time he’s the most talented athlete on the court and decided to use that athleticism to his advantage by attacking the rim (don’t tell me you missed his thunderous dunk off that putback vs. Houston).  And how can we forget the work Mike Bibby has put in.  The dude looks like he did in those deep playoff run days in Sac-town, where he was the only one man enough to take a shot with time expiring.  Bibby is the second clutch shooter the Hawks need, and one Joe Johnson can defer to when he’s double teamed down the stretch.

Even Zaza Pachulia, the international man of mystery is getting into the act, posting quality efforts in his last eight games.  Pachulia has always been a load on the offensive boards, but his game has surprisingly round into shape offensively.  The Georgian center has established a comfort level with using his left hand on drives to the hoop.  Moreover, he’s spotting up on offensive positions in locations where he can make a difference in the scoring column.  Pachulia has also been helped by consistent minutes, which (gulp) are a product of Woody’s now dependable rotation.  Now if Woody can only find a way to introduce Acie Law to the rotation…

I’m as big a stat geek as any.  Statistics generally don’t lie, and I view Hollinger’s PER as a strong indicator of the general value of an NBA player.  But stats aside, the Hawks performance on the court through the view of the naked eye has simply looked different.  Numbers cannot quantify “flow” and “rhythm.”  They cannot measure trust and familiarity.  Those, however, are the traits which have the Hawks on the rise.  Traits, which if the Hawks continue to exhibit, will have them consistently rising to the top of playoff seeding.

FALCONS LOSE IN ARIZONA: I hope the Falcons realize that the media can turn from hot to cold in a milliseconds time.  The Falcons put together a tremendous season, one that I believe will be a defining point for a franchise that has seen more downs than ups.  The foundation is in place, not only from a managerial standpoint but also from a personnel standpoint.  But that foundation could only take the Falcons so far Saturday afternoon in Arizona.  I think once emotions settle, people will realize things are looking up for this franchise and that the coaching staff squeezed every ounce of talent from the roster they inherited and molded in one year’s time.  The Cardinals were better Saturday, but in the long run the Falcons have the brighter future.  That a Falcons’ playoff loss is “disappointing” speaks itself to how far this franchise has come from the depths of despair.  Lessons were learned in Arizona, but it is those lessons the Falcons will be thankful to have learned down the road.

The Bulls forgot about Joe Johnson and he made them pay. (AP Photo/Gregory Smith)

CHI 117 ATL 129: Here are some game notes from the first half of Saturday night’s game.  (I missed the second half due to a previously scheduled engagement.)  

• Joe Johnson got a lot of open looks, including a couple of wide open threes which he buried.  This was as “in rhythm” as I have seen Joe in a while.  It was a little surprising to see some of the Bulls’ defenders forget about him on defense.  If I were the opposing coach, my game plan would be to double team Joe and let everyone else beat me.  The Bulls apparently did not go with that strategy. 
• Josh Smith played one of his best games of the season.  I was hard on him in my previous post, but against the Bulls he really attacked the rim.  Smith constantly drove the basketball and was able to draw a number of fouls from Nocioni (who in my opinion is a slow but underrated defender).  You could see “Noc” get under Smith’s skin at times, but Josh held his on and kept battling.  On one play in particular, Josh had the ball about 15 feet out, thought about the long jumper, pump faked and drew the foul on the way to the rim.  A perfect play on that possession. 
• Pachulia came off the bench and provided some key minutes.  He especially looked comfortable on offense and has started to use his left hand more to finish at the rim.  Assuming the Hawks don’t trade for another big, he’s going to play a huge role down the stretch for this team. 
• The Bulls set the tempo and Hawks matched it with no problem.  I think its a mistake to tempt these Hawks to run (as the Bulls found out).  There aren’t many teams as athletic as the Hawks who can match their game speed.  
• Derrick Rose is the next superstar.  No doubt about it.  The dude attacks the rim better than anyone not named Kobe, Lebron and D-Wade.  I saw Marvin at times try to guard him, but Rose was simply to quick to the hoop.  It’s almost as though he’s capable of getting to the rim whenever he sets his mind to it.  If he had a supporting cast – he doesn’t – the Bulls would be legitimate contenders for the 8 seed in the East.  
• Marvin Williams is quietly improving his game.  While I think his “aggressiveness” meter is turned up to about a 7 (out of 10), he’s playing with increased enthusiasm.  Moreover, he’s distinguished himself as the third scorer on this team.  I think there’s plenty of room for improvement in his game, which is scary given that he’s a pretty good player as is.  

Although Smith remains an integral part of the Hawks, his output has diminished this season.

I touched on Josh Smith’s slow start to this season in yesterday’s post, but I wanted to go into a little further detail on his struggles as we approach the first “third” mark of the season.  First, a few caveats.  Smith injured his ankle early in the season vs. the Raptors and as a result lost a lot of the rhythm he was able to develop in the first three games he was healthy for.  Also, each starter’s numbers should have been expected to take a minor dip given the addition of Mike Bibby for a full season.  Whereas Anthony Johnson averaged 6.7 points/game, Bibby is throwing down 15.9 points/game.  That’s around a 9 point spike in production, some of which inevitably results in a dropoff in the scoring of the four remaining starters. 

(LACK OF) SHOOTING: With those two premises in mind, Smith’s overall production has nevertheless been a disappointment after inking a 5 year/$58 million contract.  Smith’s field goal percentage is down significantly, from close to 46% to 42.6%.  His free throw shooting has also followed suit, dropping from 71% to 67.1%.  This all has resulted in a drop in his scoring output, which has fell from 19.4 points/40 minutes to 15.3 points/40 minutes.  This is an alarming drop even for a player whose not exactly known for his offensive prowess.  

As an observer, a few changes in Smith’s game have been noticeable.  Early in the season and even at times recently, Smith has settled for long outside jumpers and three point shots.  Smith is anything but a gifted outside shooter, and opposing team’s game plan to let him take the longer outside shots.  Smith’s athleticism should allow him to attack the rim at will; instead, however, he’s settled and it has cost him.  The power forward’s propensity for the three point shot is maddening in itself because of his horrific shooting percentage (27%) from downtown.  In no instance should Smith take this shot – not even if there isn’t a defender in sight.  

Smith also has looked lost and uncomfortable in some of the Hawks’ offensive sets.  At times it appears he’s not sure if he should shoot, drive, or swing the ball.  Typically this results in a long jumper as referenced above or an awkward drive to the hoop where the ball is stripped.  For lack of a better phrase, Smith looks “out of the flow” on offense.  If his struggles continue for another ten games, Hawks fans have a reason to be concerned.  As of right now, its safe to assume Smith is still trying to assimilate himself after missing some serious time. 

REBOUNDING: What’s more alarming in Smith’s statistical output this season is his drop in rebounding, a sheer “effort” category which the 23 year old should easily control given his size and athleticism.  Smith’s rebounds/40 minutes has dropped from 9.3 to 8.4 and his overall rebound rate has dropped from 13.5 to 12.2 (rebound rate is the percentage of missed shots a player rebounds).  There’s really not one thing in particular one can point to for this reduction.  Marvin Williams has increased his rebound rate (9.6 to 10.3) but Al Horford’s has dropped dramatically (18 to 14.9), thus leaving more missed shots for rebounds.  It’s possible Smith’s effort has reduced this season since he is no longer in a contract year.  It’s also possible that Smith’s ankle has been limited.  What’s more probable than the both of these, however, is Smith’s positioning.  Smith sometimes gets in a poor spot on the floor coming off a missed shot, leading to tougher rebounds.  It’s not just Smith but also Marvin Williams, who should also own the boards.  Whatever the reason is, it’s clear Smith’s rebounding has suffered this season. 

BLOCKED SHOTS: Finally, although Smith will soon be fifth in the league in blocks (he’s currently not eligible given his game’s played), his blocked shot numbers have taken a dip as well.  Smith has gone from 2.8 to 1.9 blocks/game, another alarming drop-off given that his playing time has pretty much remained the same.  Perhaps opponents are not attacking Smith the way they used to now that the secret’s out on his ability to block shots.  The more likely theory, however, is that opponents have started to figure out Smith’s methodology for blocking shots.  Smith gives a ton of ground up on defense and tends to back pedal in hopes of eliciting a shot to block.  While he still gets a ton of blocks this way, its much less than before as offensive players have found a way to get their shots off. 

THE VERDICT: Smith’s production is down across the board.  There’s no other way to say it.  But at this point, he has to be given the benefit of the doubt given his injury early in the season.  If Smith’s production is still the same two months from now, however, it may be time to worry.  I have heard $58 million has a way of bringing out a sense of complacency in the best of us.  Especially when compared to trying to play for your next paycheck.

1 Orlando Dwight Howard | F | 6-11 | 240 SW Atlanta Christian Academy (Ga.) 2 Charlotte (from LAC) Emeka Okafor | F-C | 6-10 | 252 Connecticut 3 Chicago Ben Gordon | G | 6-3 | 200 Connecticut 4 L.A. Clippers (from CHA) Shaun Livingston | G | 6-7 | 175 Peoria Central HS (Ill.) 5 Washington Devin Harris | G | 6-3 | 185 Wisconsin | Rights traded to DAL 6 Atlanta Josh Childress | F | 6-8 | 210 Stanford 7 Phoenix Luol Deng | F | 6-8 | 220 Duke | Rights traded to CHI 8 Toronto Rafael Araujo | C | 6-11 | 290 Brigham Young 9 Philadelphia Andre Iguodala | F | 6-6 | 207 Arizona 10 Cleveland Luke Jackson | F | 6-7 | 215 Oregon 11 Golden State Andris Biedrins | F | 6-11 | 240 Latvia 12 Seattle Robert Swift | C | 7-0 | 245 Bakersfield HS (Calif.) 13 Portland Sebastian Telfair | G | 6-0 | 165 Abraham Lincoln HS (N.Y.) 14 Utah Kris Humphries | F | 6-9 | 235 Minnesota 15 Boston Al Jefferson | F | 6-10 | 265 Prentiss HS (Miss.) 16 Utah (from NYK/PHO) Kirk Snyder | G | 6-6 | 225 Nevada 17 Atlanta (from MIL/DEN/DET) Josh Smith | F | 6-9 | 210 Oak Hill Academy (Va.) 18 New Orleans J.R. Smith | G | 6-6 | 220 St. Benedict’s Prep (N.J.) 19 Miami Dorell Wright | F | 6-7 | 210 Leuzinger HS (Calif.) 20 Denver Jameer Nelson | G | 6-0 | 190 St. Joseph’s | Rights traded to ORL 21 Utah (from HOU) Pavel Podkolzin | C | 7-5 | 260 Russia | Rights traded to DAL 22 New Jersey Viktor Khryapa | F | 6-9 | 210 Russia | Rights traded to POR 23 Portland (from MEM) Sergei Monia | F | 6-8 | 220 Russia 24 Boston (from DAL) Delonte West | G | 6-4 | 180 St. Joseph’s 25 Boston (from DET) Tony Allen | G | 6-4 | 213 Oklahoma State 26 Sacramento Kevin Martin | G | 6-7 | 185 Western Carolina 27 L.A. Lakers Sasha Vujacic | G | 6-7 | 193 Slovenia 28 San Antonio Beno Udrih | G | 6-3 | 203 Slovenia 29 Indiana David Harrison | C | 7-0 | 250 Colorado

The Hawks’ reclamation project in essence began in 2004, when former GM Billy Knight had four picks in the draft total.  We all know how this turned out.  But,  just to remind you, Childress was taken 6th, J. Smith 17th, Donta Smith 34th, and Royal Ivey 37th.  Looking back on it, this might have been Knight’s best draft.  While the Hawks are not still enjoying the fruits of Childress’ skill set, Childress was arguably the second or third best sixth man in the league last year.  Smith has turned into a peripheral All-Star (although his numbers this year have in no way merited his huge offseason contract).  Donta Smith was utterly useless in the NBA while Ivey – to many execs’ surprise – has still managed to earn his paycheck through his sheer effort and defensive skill set.  

The 2004 Draft produced one clear cut superstar (Dwight Howard), two fringe superstars (Al Jefferson and Kevin Martin) and one budding All-Star (Devin Harris).  Outside of those four, everyone else’s place among the hierarchy is arguable.  Okafor, Gordon, Childress, Deng, and Iguodala are all above-average players, the majority of whom got overpaid last off-season for limited skill sets.  Okafor was hyped up prior to leaving UConn, but he’s been anything but a go to scorer.  Gordon, on the other hand, is nothing but a scorer.  He doesn’t really defend nor contribute in other areas of the game, such as passing and rebounding.  Deng would make a nice complementary scorer on a good team, but instead he’s a go to scorer on a bad team.  The decision to make him the go to guy may put GM John Paxson out of a job.  Iguodala re-upped to a massive deal in hopes of combining with Elton Brand to join the East’s upper echelon.  That just hasn’t happened.  As for Childress, well he’s playing in Greece and loving it (although I have a hunch he’ll be back in the NBA next year, perhaps even in a Hawks uniform).  Childress never justified his status as the sixth pick in the draft.  Not even close.  But on the flip side, he was far from a bust.  Childress was a very average scorer, but he was a great energizer on a young team, and he had an uncanny ability to be around the rim at all the right times.  Even though the Hawks are 18-10 and have dramatically improved from last season, don’t underestimate the loss of Childress.  It still hurts.  

Between Harris and the aforementioned group led by Okafor are three players who we still aren’t sure of.  They don’t qualify as All-Stars just yet, but their talent level indicates at least consideration of such a possibility.  That group includes Andris Biedrins, Smith, and Jameer Nelson.  Biedrins’ numbers have been limited because of Don Nelson’s propensity to use a “small-ball” line-up in Golden State, but even with this hindrance the 7 footer is posting a ridiculous 21.15 PER.  Smith has been somewhat of a disappointment this season, seeing a significant drop in his scoring output and shooting percentage.  In his defense, he was sidelined with an ankle injury for over ten games and has yet to fully figure out his role in the offense.  Smith’s 15.78 PER is being held up by his blocked shots and rebounding, but his offense has proved “un-seasoned” at best.  Still, Smith was a steal at No. 17 in the draft and his potential to grow as a player is still there.  Finally, we’re left with Nelson, the former St. Joseph Hawk who really had nothing left to prove after leaving college.  Despite his collegiate accomplishments, Nelson still dropped to 20th in the draft.  While Nelson was an average point guard since starting in the league, he has exploded this year.  Nelson is shooting 53% from the field and dropping 43+% from three point range, good for 17 points/game.  Throw in the fact that he’s contributing 5 assists/game, nearly 4 rebounds/game and only playing 32 minutes per contest, and you have the makings of a very above average point guard.  

As for busts, look no further than Shaun Livingston, who was picked at No. 4 by the Clippers.  You really can’t blame the Clips for this pick, as Livingston was a terrific high school prospect who many compared to Magic Johnson.  Livingston, unfortunately, has been sidelined by a number of injuries, the last being a horrific knee injury where the young point guard dislocated his kneecap.  Araujo, Jackson, Swift, Telfair, Humphries, Snyder, Wright, Podkozin, Khryapa and Monia were all busts.  Of that group, only Telfair (Timberwolves) and Humphries (Toronto) get any significant run, but that run is limited for the both of them. 

So back to the Hawks.  Was it a good draft?  Yes and no.  I like Childress and I’m clearly biased given my affinity for his skill set and what he brought to the Hawks last season.  But Deng, Biedrins and Jefferson would not only have made more sense than Childress, but would have been better for the team as well.  Deng is a better scorer and all around player.  Biedrins would have given them a center they still lack today.  Jefferson is a very solid low post scorer whose offensive skill set at this point in time outrivals that of Al Horford.  

As for the Smith pick, that one is impossible to discount.  I distinctly remember watching this draft and listening to ESPN draft analyst Jay Bilas say “Josh Smith has the biggest chance of being THE bust in this draft.”  I think its fair to say Jay was wrong.  Very wrong.  And while Smith may prove turnover prone and “lost” on offense at times, he provides the necessary element of shotblocking to a Hawks team which has a tough time protecting the rim without him.  While one could make an argument that Nelson or Kevin Martin would have made more sense, Hawks fans have to be satisfied with the Smith selection. 

Hawks’ 2004 NBA Draft Grade: B+